Analysis of Geographic Environmental Risk Factors Associated with Dengue Infection in Palembang City
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33394/bioscientist.v14i2.20161Keywords:
Dengue infection, temperature, humidity, rainfall, Palembang CityAbstract
This study aimed to identify the relationship between environmental factors temperature, humidity, and rainfall, and dengue infection incidence in Palembang City, with emphasis on temporal lag effects and their implications for disease surveillance and control. A quantitative descriptive study was conducted using monthly secondary data from 2021 to 2023. Time-series descriptive analysis and lag correlation methods were applied to examine both concurrent and delayed associations between the environmental variables and dengue case counts. While temperature and humidity showed no consistent concurrent association with dengue incidence, rainfall demonstrated a notable lag-1 effect, whereby increased rainfall in a given month was followed by a rise in dengue cases one month later. This temporal pattern suggests that post-rainfall accumulation of standing water may facilitate mosquito breeding and subsequently elevate transmission risk. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating temporal environmental indicators into dengue early warning systems. Integrating rainfall lag patterns into public health monitoring could support more timely and targeted prevention efforts in Palembang and comparable urban settings across Indonesia.
References
Aguilar-Briseño, J. A., Moser, J., & Rodenhuis-Zybert, I. A. (2020). Understanding immunopathology of severe dengue: Lessons learnt from sepsis. Current Opinion in Virology, 43, 41–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coviro.2020.07.010
Ali, A., Nisar, S., Khan, M. A., Mohsan, S. A. H., Noor, F., Mostafa, H., & Marey, M. (2022). A privacy-preserved Internet-of-Medical-Things scheme for eradication and control of dengue using UAV. Micromachines, 13(10), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/mi13101702
Amelinda, Y. S., Wulandari, R. A., & Asyary, A. (2022). The effects of climate factors, population density, and vector density on the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in South Jakarta Administrative City 2016–2020: An ecological study. Acta Biomedica, 93(6). https://doi.org/10.23750/abm.v93i6.13503
Andhikaputra, G., Lin, Y. H., & Wang, Y. C. (2023). Effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño Southern Oscillations on dengue-like-illness incidence in Solomon Islands. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08188-x
Anoopkumar, A. N., Puthur, S., Varghese, P., Rebello, S., & Anessh, E. M. (2017). Life cycle, bio-ecology, and DNA barcoding of mosquitoes Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse). Journal of Communicable Disease, 49(3), 32–41. https://doi.org/10.24321/0019.5138.201719
Astuti, E. P., Dhewantara, P. W., Prasetyowati, H., Ipa, M., Herawati, C., & Hendrayana, K. (2019). Paediatric dengue infection in Cirebon, Indonesia: A temporal and spatial analysis of notified dengue incidence to inform surveillance. Parasites and Vectors, 12(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3446-3
Bhatt, P., Sabeena, S. P., Varma, M., & Arunkumar, G. (2021). Current understanding of the pathogenesis of dengue virus infection. Current Microbiology, 78, 17–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00284-020-02284-w
Castro, L. A., Generous, N., Luo, W., Pastore y Piontti, A., Martinez, K., Gomes, M. F. C., Osthus, D., Fairchild, G., Ziemann, A., Vespignani, A., Santillana, M., Manore, C. A., & Del Valle, S. Y. (2021). Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatiotemporal scales across Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(5), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009392
Dalpadado, R., Amarasinghe, D., Gunathilaka, N., & Wijayanayake, A. N. (2024). Forecasting dengue incidence based on entomological indices, population density, and meteorological and environmental variables in the Gampaha District of Sri Lanka. Heliyon, 10(11), e32326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32326
Dinkes Kota Palembang. (2024). Profil Kesehatan Kota Palembang 2023.
Dinkes Prov. Sumsel. (2024). Profil Kesehatan Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Tahun 2023.
Fujita, D. M., Salvador, F. S., Nali, L. H. da S., & Andrade Júnior, H. F. de. (2023). Dengue and climate changes: Increase of DENV-1 in São Paulo/Brazil—2023. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 56, 102668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102668
Huang, C. H., Lin, C. Y., Yang, C. Y., Chan, T. C., Chiang, P. H., & Chen, Y. H. (2021). Relationship between the incidence of dengue virus transmission in traditional market and climatic conditions in Kaohsiung City. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/9916642
Islam, M. A., Hasan, M. N., Tiwari, A., Raju, M. A. W., Jannat, F., Sangkham, S., Shammas, M. I., Sharma, P., Bhattacharya, P., & Kumar, M. (2023). Correlation of dengue and meteorological factors in Bangladesh: A public health concern. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20065152
Kemenkes RI. (2024). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia Tahun 2023.
Kesetyaningsih, T. W., Andarini, S., Sudarto, & Pramoedyo, H. (2018). Determination of environmental factors affecting dengue incidence in Sleman District, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. African Journal of Infectious Diseases, 12, 13–25. https://doi.org/10.2101/Ajid.12v1S.3
Leowattana, W., & Leowattana, T. (2021). Dengue hemorrhagic fever and the liver. World Journal of Hepatology, 13(12), 1968–1976. https://doi.org/10.4254/wjh.v13.i12.1968
Liu, Z., Zhang, Q., Li, L., He, J., Guo, J., Wang, Z., Huang, Y., Xi, Z., Yuan, F., Li, Y., & Li, T. (2023). The effect of temperature on dengue virus transmission by Aedes mosquitoes. Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology, 13, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcimb.2023.1242173
Mahaboob, L., Divya, P. D., & Shalini, S. (2025). Dengue fever: Epidemiology, clinical insights, and strategies for control. International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts, 13, 874–879.
Oliveira, A. R. S., Cohnstaedt, L. W., & Cernicchiaro, N. (2018). Japanese encephalitis virus: Placing disease vectors in the epidemiologic triad. Annals of the Entomological Society of America, 111(6), 295–303. https://doi.org/10.1093/aesa/say025
Schaefer, T. J., Panda, P. K., & Wolford, R. W. (2022). Dengue fever. In BMJ Best Practice. StatPearls.
Wang, W. H., Urbina, A. N., Chang, M. R., Assavalapsakul, W., Lu, P. L., Chen, Y. H., & Wang, S. F. (2020). Dengue hemorrhagic fever: A systemic literature review of current perspectives on pathogenesis, prevention, and control. Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, 53(6), 963–978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmii.2020.03.007
Wang, Y., Li, C., Zhao, S., Lin, G., Jiang, X., Yin, S., He, M., Wu, Q., Guo, Z., Wei, Y., Ren, C., & Chong, K. C. (2025). Evaluation of dengue fever vulnerability in South and Southeast Asian countries: A multidimensional approach. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 18(9). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102849
World Health Organization. (2020). 2020 dengue. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia.
Xu, Z., Bambrick, H., Yakob, L., Devine, G., Lu, J., Frentiu, F. D., Yang, W., Williams, G., & Hu, W. (2019). Spatiotemporal patterns and climatic drivers of severe dengue in Thailand. Science of the Total Environment, 656, 889–901. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.395
Zeng, Z., Zhan, J., Chen, L., Chen, H., & Cheng, S. (2021). Global, regional, and national dengue burden from 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. EClinicalMedicine, 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100712
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Muhammad Prima Cakra Randana, Irfannuddin, Nurhayati Damiri, Chairil Anwar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
